Every technology revolution begins with a promise to overthrow the reigning incumbent and ends with a product manager explaining why users actually enjoy looking at sponsored pictures. At a press event on Monday, ChatGPT consumer product lead Adam Fry announced that the volume of web searches run through ChatGPT has reached 20 percent, or one-fifth, of the query volume processed by Google, as the phrase "Ask Chat" replaces "Google it" in many circles.
Twenty Percent of an Unspecified Number
Handling a fifth of Google's traffic leaves OpenAI a long way from first place, yet the figure makes Microsoft's decade-long search effort look painfully slow. During Google's 2023 antitrust trial, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella testified that Bing held roughly 3 percent of the search engine market share after more than ten years of trying. At that same trial, Google argued that AI was a potential disruptor and pointed to ChatGPT as a serious competitor, a courtroom defense that OpenAI now seems happy to validate.
The math has gaps. Fry did not share the source for OpenAI's estimate of Google's total search volume, and OpenAI likely relies on Microsoft Bing for a large share of its searches alongside its own in-house search index, while some speculation persists that it even routes certain queries through Google.
What Counts as a Search and Where the Clicks Go
OpenAI draws a line. The company separates general chatbot requests from active web lookups, while both OpenAI and Google are rebuilding search interfaces so users rarely leave the page.
- Strict search definitions: Fry said OpenAI counts a query as a search only when a user prompt triggers a web search, excluding tasks like defining a term or giving a simple how-to explanation.
- Fewer external clicks: Google continues to cut conventional referrals to third-party sites while pouring money into AI Overview and other generative AI features, including personalized search results built with charts and visualizations.
- Interactive chatbot canvases: As more queries route through services from OpenAI and other AI labs, competitors are building similar AI-centered search experiences under different labels, with OpenAI calling its visual, interactive response interface "Intelligent UI."
Fry described this interface shift in grand terms. "That's where the future of this technology goes. You're talking to a canvas," he said.
The Inevitable Arrival of Sponsored Pictures
Talking to a canvas sounds poetic, right up until the canvas starts trying to sell you things. With a potential IPO slated for early next year, OpenAI views advertising as a plausible route to profitability, borrowing the exact business model of the search giant it is chasing. Last month, OpenAI announced that ChatGPT ads would expand beyond a company's name, logo, and product link to include images of sponsored products and services.
Users did not revolt. OpenAI has defended its advertising before, and Fry told reporters on Monday that the rollout had not caused a lasting backlash. "Ads have not negatively impacted the product or the usage of the product," Fry said, adding that "most people do not seem to mind ads in the product."
In product management, the absence of a riot always reads as an invitation to push further. "Ads have maybe shown us that we could be doing this more, actually," Fry said.